July 2, 2025

Swedish Nationwide Population Study Identifies Top Predictors of ADHD Diagnoses Among Preschoolers

Most preschool-aged children diagnosed with ADHD also exhibit comorbid mental or developmental conditions. Long-term studies following these children into adulthood have demonstrated that higher severity of ADHD symptoms in early childhood is associated with a more persistent course of ADHD. 

The Study: 

Sweden has a single-payer national health insurance system that covers virtually all residents, facilitating nationwide population studies. An international study team (US, Brazil, Sweden) searched national registers for predictors of ADHD diagnoses among all 631,695 surviving and non-emigrating preschoolers born from 2001 through 2007.  

Preschool ADHD was defined by diagnosis or prescription of ADHD medications issued to toddlers aged three through five years old.  

Predictors were conditions diagnosed prior to the ADHD diagnosis. 

A total of 1,686 (2.7%) preschoolers were diagnosed with ADHD, with the mean age at diagnosis being 4.6 years. 

The Numbers:

Adjusting for sex and birth year, the team reported the following predictors, in order of magnitude: 

  • Previous diagnosis of autism spectrum disorder increased subsequent likelihood of ADHD diagnosis twentyfold. 
  • Previous diagnosis of intellectual disability increased subsequent likelihood of ADHD diagnosis fifteenfold. 
  • Previous diagnosis of speech/language developmental disorders and learning disorders, as well as motor and tic disorders, increased subsequent likelihood of ADHD diagnosis thirteen-fold. 
  • Previous diagnosis of sleep disorders increased subsequent likelihood of ADHD diagnosis fivefold. 
  • Previous diagnosis of feeding and eating disorders increased subsequent likelihood of ADHD diagnosis almost fourfold. 
  • Previous diagnosis of gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) increased subsequent likelihood of ADHD diagnosis 3.5-fold. 
  • Previous diagnosis of asthma increased subsequent likelihood of ADHD diagnosis 2.4-fold. 
  • Previous diagnosis of allergic rhinitis increased subsequent likelihood of ADHD diagnosis by 70%. 
  • Previous diagnosis of atopic dermatitis or unintentional injuries increased subsequent likelihood of ADHD diagnosis by 50%. 

The Conclusion: 

This large population study underscores that many conditions present in early childhood can help predict an ADHD diagnosis in preschoolers. Recognizing these risk factors early may aid in identifying and addressing ADHD sooner, hopefully improving outcomes for children as they grow

Wagner Gurgel, Miguel Garcia-Argibay, Brian M. D’Onofrio, Henrik Larsson, and Guilherme V. Polanczyk, “Predictors of preschool attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder diagnosis: a population-based study using national registers,” Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry (2025), 66:6, 834-845, https://doi.org/10.1111/jcpp.14093.

Related posts

ADHD Medication and Academic Achievement: What Do We Really Know?

Parents and teachers often ask: Does ADHD medication actually improve grades and school performance? The answer is: yes, but with important limitations. Medications are very effective at reducing inattention, hyperactivity, and impulsivity but their impact on long-term academic outcomes like grades and test scores is not as consistent.

In the Classroom

The medications for ADHD consistently: Improve attention, reduce classroom disruptions, increase time spent on-task and help children complete more schoolwork and homework. Medication can help children with ADHD access learning by improving the conditions for paying attention and persisting with work.

Does Medication Improve Test Scores and Grades?

This is where the picture gets more complicated.  Medications have  stronger effect on how much work is completed but a weaker effect on accuracy. Many studies show that children on medication attempt more problems in reading, math, and spelling, but the number of correct answers doesn’t always improve as much. Some studies find small but significant improvements in national exam scores and higher education entrance tests during periods when children with ADHD are medicated.

Grades improve, as well, but modestly. Large registry studies in Sweden show that students who consistently take medication earn higher grades than those who don’t. However, these gains usually do not close the achievement gap with peers who do not have ADHD.

Keep in mind that small improvements for a group as a whole mean that some children are benefiting greatly from medication and others not at all.  We have no way of predicting which children will improve and which do not. 

Medication Alone Isn’t Enough

Academic success depends on more than just reducing inattention, hyperactivity and impulsivity. Skills like organization, planning, studying, and managing long-term projects are also critical.  Medication cannot teach these skills.

So, in addition to medication, the patient's treatment program should include educational support (tutoring, structured study skills programs), behavioral interventions (parent training, classroom management strategies), and accommodations at school (extra time, reduced distractions, organizational aids) Parents should discuss with their prescriber which of these methods would be appropriate.

Conclusions 

ADHD medication is a powerful tool for reducing symptoms and supporting learning. It improves test scores and grades for some children, especially when taken consistently. But it is not a magic bullet for academic success. The best results come when medication is combined with educational and behavioral supports that help children build the skills they need to thrive in school and beyond.

September 17, 2025

Dose-dependent Association Found Between Childhood General Anesthesia and ADHD

Childhood General Anesthesia and Subsequent Diagnoses of ADHD

In December 2016, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) warned “that repeated or lengthy use of general anesthetic and sedation drugs during surgeries or procedures in children younger than 3 years or in pregnant women during their third trimester may affect the development of children’s brains.” The FDA adds, “Health care professionals should balance the benefits of appropriate anesthesia against the potential risks, especially for procedures lasting longer than 3 hours or if multiple procedures are required in children under 3 years,” and “Studies in pregnant and young animals have shown that using these drugs for more than 3 hours caused widespread loss of brain nerve cells.”

That raises a concern that such exposure could lead to increased risk of psychiatric disorders, including ADHD.

Noting “There are inconsistent reports regarding the association between general anesthesia and adverse neurodevelopmental and behavioral disorders in children,” a South Korean study team conducted a nationwide population study to explore possible associations through the country’s single-payer health insurance database that covers roughly 97% of all residents.

The team looked at the cohort of all children born in Korea between 2008 and 2009, and followed them until December 31, 2017. They identified 93,717 children in this cohort who during surgery received general anesthesia with endotracheal intubation (a tube inserted down the trachea), and matched them with an equal number of children who were not exposed to general anesthesia.

The team matched the unexposed group with the exposed group by age, sex, birth weight, residential area at birth, and economic status.

They then assessed both groups for subsequent diagnoses of ADHD.

In general, children exposed to general anesthesia were found to have a 40% greater risk of subsequently being diagnosed with ADHD than their unexposed peers.

This effect was found to be dose dependent by several measures:

  • Duration of surgery: two-to-three-hour surgeries were associated with a 50% greater risk of subsequent ADHD, and surgeries of more than three hours with a 60% greater risk.
  • Number of exposures: two exposures were associated with a 54% increased risk, and three or more exposures with a 67% greater risk.
  • Placement in an Intensive Care Unit was associated with a 60% greater risk of ADHD.

All three measures were highly significant.

The authors concluded, “exposure to general anesthesia with ETI [endotracheal intubation] in children is associated with an increased risk of ADHD … We must recognize the possible neurodevelopmental risk resulting from general anesthesia exposure, inform patients and parents regarding this risk, and emphasize the importance of close monitoring of mental health. However, the risk from anesthesia exposure is not superior to the importance of medical procedures. Specific research is needed for the development of safer anesthetic drugs and doses.”

June 20, 2024

How Effective is Cognitive Training for Preschool Children?

How effective is cognitive training for preschool children?

A German team of researchers performed a comprehensive search of the medical literature and identified 35randomized controlled trials (RCTs) published in English that explored this question. Participating children were between three and six years old. Children with intellectual disabilities, sensory disabilities, or specific neurological disorders such as epilepsy were excluded.

The total number of participating preschoolers was over three thousand, drawn almost exclusively from the general population, meaning these studies were not specifically evaluating effects on children with ADHD. But given that ADHD results in poorer executive functioning, evidence of the effectiveness of cognitive training would suggest it could help partially reverse such deficits.

RCTs assign participants randomly to a treatment group and a group not receiving treatment but often receiving a placebo. But RCTs themselves vary in risk of bias, depending on:

  • whether the control condition was passive (i.e. waiting list or no treatment) or active/sham (an activity of similar duration and intensity to the treatment condition)
  • whether the outcome was measured by subjective rating (e.g. by questionnaires, susceptible to reporting biases) or more objective neuropsychological testing;
  • whether the assessment of outcome was by blinded assessors unaware of participants' treatment conditions;
  • whether there was a risk of bias from participants dropping out of the trial.

After evaluating the RCTs by these criteria, the team performed a series of meta-analyses.

Combining the 23 RCTs with over 2,000 children that measured working memory, they found that cognitive training led to robust moderate improvements. Looking only at the eleven most rigorously controlled studies strengthened the effect, with moderate-to-large gains.

Twenty-six RCTs with over 2,200 children assessed inhibitory control. When pooled, they indicated a small-to-moderate improvement from cognitive training. Including only the seven most rigorously controlled studies again strengthened the effect, boosting it into the moderate effect zone.

Twelve RCTs with over 1,500 participants tested the effects of cognitive training on flexibility. When combined, they pointed to moderate gains. Looking at only the four well-controlled studies boosted the effect to strong gains. Yet here there was evidence of publication bias, so no firm conclusion can be drawn.

Only four studies with a combined total of 119 preschoolers tested the effects on ADHD ratings. The meta-analysis found a small but non-significant improvement, very likely due to insufficient sampling. As the authors noted, "some findings of the meta-analysis are limited by the insufficient number of eligible studies. Specifically, more studies are needed which use blinded assessments of subjective ratings of ADHD ... symptoms ..."

The authors concluded that their meta-analyses revealed significant, mostly medium-sized effects of the preschool interventions on core EFs [executive functions] in studies showing the low risk of bias."

January 2, 2022

Two New Meta-analyses Point to Benefits of Transcranial Direct Current Stimulation

Background: 

ADHD treatment includes medication, behavioral therapy, dietary changes, and special education. Stimulants are usually the first choice but may cause side effects like appetite loss and stomach discomfort, leading some to stop using them. Cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) is effective but not always sufficient on its own. Research is increasingly exploring non-drug options, such as transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS), which may boost medication effectiveness and improve results. 

What is tDCS?

tDCS delivers a weak electric current (1.0–2.0 mA) via scalp electrodes to modulate brain activity, with current flowing from anode to cathode. Anodal stimulation increases neuronal activity, while cathodal stimulation generally inhibits it, though effects vary by region and neural circuitry. The impact of tDCS depends on factors such as current intensity, duration, and electrode shape. It targets cortical areas, often stimulating the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex for ADHD due to its role in cognitive control. Stimulation of the inferior frontal gyrus has also been shown to improve response inhibition, making it another target for ADHD therapy. 

There is an ongoing debate about how effective tDCS is for individuals with ADHD. One study found that applying tDCS to the left dorsolateral prefrontal cortex can help reduce impulsivity symptoms in ADHD, whereas another study reported that several sessions of anodic tDCS did not lead to improvements in ADHD symptoms or cognitive abilities.  

New Research:

Two recent meta-analyses have searched for a resolution to these conflicting findings. Both included only randomized controlled trials (RCTs) using either sham stimulation or a waitlist for controls. 

Each team included seven studies in their respective meta-analyses, three of which appeared in both. 

Both Wang et al. (three RCTs totaling 97 participants) and Wen et al. (three RCTs combining 121 participants) reported very large effect size reductions in inattention symptoms from tDCS versus controls. There was only one RCT overlap between them. Wang et al. had moderate to high  variation (heterogeneity) in individual study outcomes, whereas Wen et al. had virtually none. There was no indication of publication bias. 

Whereas Wen et al.’s same three RCTs found no significant reduction in hyperactivity/impulsivity symptoms, Wang et al. combined five RCTs with 221 total participants and reported a medium effect size reduction in impulsivity symptoms. This time, there was an overlap of two RCTs between the studies. Wen et al. had no heterogeneity, while Wang et al. had moderate heterogeneity. Neither showed signs of publication bias.  

Turning to performance-based tasks, Wang et al. reported a medium effect size improvement in attentional performance from tDCS over controls (three RCTs totaling 136 participants), but no improvement in inhibitory control (five RCTs combining 234 persons). 

Wang et al. found no significant difference in adverse events (four RCTs combining 161 participants) between tDCS and controls, with no heterogeneity. Wen et al. found no significant difference in dropout rates (4 RCTs totaling 143 individuals), again with no heterogeneity.  

Wang et al. concluded, “tDCS may improve impulsive symptoms and inattentive symptoms among ADHD patients without increasing adverse effects, which is critical for clinical practice, especially when considering noninvasive brain stimulation, where patient safety is a key concern.” 

Wen et al. further concluded, “Our study supported the use of tDCS for improving the self-reported symptoms of inattention and objective attentional performance in adults diagnosed with ADHD. However, the limited number of available trials hindered a robust investigation into the parameters required for establishing a standard protocol, such as the optimal location of electrode placement and treatment frequency in this setting. Further large-scale double-blind sham-controlled clinical trials that include assessments of self-reported symptoms and performance-based tasks both immediately after interventions and during follow-up periods, as well as comparisons of the efficacy of tDCS targeting different brain locations, are warranted to address these issues.” 

The Take-Away: 

Previous studies have shown mixed results on the benefits of this therapy on ADHD. These new findings suggest that tDCS may hold some real promise for adults with ADHD. While the technique didn’t meaningfully shift hyperactivity or impulsivity, it was well-tolerated and showed benefit, especially in self-reported symptoms. However, with only a handful of trials to draw from, it would be a mistake to suggest tDCS as a standard treatment protocol. Larger, well-designed studies are the next essential step to clarify where, how, and how often tDCS works best.

Meta-analysis Reports Executive Function Gains from Exercise Interventions for ADHD

Background:

The development of ADHD is strongly associated with functional impairments in the prefrontal cortex, particularly the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, which plays a key role in maintaining attention and controlling impulses. Moreover, imbalances in neurotransmitters like dopamine and norepinephrine are widely regarded as major neurobiological factors contributing to ADHD. 

Executive functions are a group of higher-order cognitive skills that guide thoughts and actions toward goals. “Executive function” refers to three main components: inhibitory control, working memory, and cognitive flexibility. Inhibitory control helps curb impulsive actions to stay on track. Working memory allows temporary storage and manipulation of information for complex tasks. Cognitive flexibility enables switching attention and strategies in varied or demanding situations. 

Research shows that about 89% of children with ADHD have specific executive function impairments. These difficulties in attention, self-control, and working memory often result in academic and social issues. Without timely intervention, these issues can lead to emotional disorders like depression, anxiety, and irritability, further affecting both physical health and social development. 

Currently, primary treatments for executive function deficits in school-aged children with ADHD include medication and behavioral or psychological therapies, such as Cognitive Behavioral Therapy (CBT). While stimulant medications do improve executive function, not all patients are able to tolerate these medications. Behavioral interventions like neurofeedback provide customized care but show variable effectiveness and require specialized resources, making them hard to sustain. Safer, more practical, and long-lasting treatment options are urgently needed. 

Exercise interventions are increasingly recognized as a safe, effective way to improve executive function in children with ADHD. However, systematic studies on school-aged children remain limited.  

Moreover, there are two main scoring methods for assessing executive function: positive scoring (higher values mean better performance, such as accuracy) and reverse scoring (lower values mean better performance, such as reaction time). These different methods can affect how results are interpreted and compared across studies. This meta-analysis explored how different measurement and scoring methods might influence results, addressing important gaps in the research. 

The Study:

Only randomized controlled trials (RCTs) involving school-aged children (6–13 years old) diagnosed with ADHD by DSM-IV, DSM-5, ICD-10, ICD-11, or the SNAP-IV scale were included. Studies were excluded if the experimental group received non-exercise interventions or exercise combined with other interventions. 

Cognitive Flexibility 

Using positive scoring, exercise interventions were associated with a narrowly non-significant small effect size improvement relative to controls (eight RCTs, 268 children). Using reverse scoring, however, they were associated with a medium effect size improvement (eleven RCTs, 452 children). Variation (heterogeneity) in individual RCT outcomes was moderate, with no sign of publication bias in both instances. 

Inhibitory Control 

Using positive scoring, exercise interventions were associated with a medium effect size improvement relative to controls (ten RCTs, 421 children). Using reverse scoring, there was an association with a medium effect size improvement (eight RCTs, 265 children). Heterogeneity was moderate with no sign of publication bias in either case. 

Working Memory 

Using positive scoring, exercise interventions were associated with a medium effect size improvement relative to controls (six RCTs, 321 children). Using reverse scoring, the exercise was associated with a medium effect size improvement (five RCTs, 143 children). Heterogeneity was low with no indication of publication bias in both instances. 

Conclusion:

The team concluded, “Exercise interventions can effectively improve inhibitory control and working memory in school-aged children with ADHD, regardless of whether positive or reverse scoring methods are applied. However, the effects of exercise on cognitive flexibility appear to be limited, with significant improvements observed only under reverse scoring. Moreover, the effects of exercise interventions on inhibitory control, working memory, and cognitive flexibility vary across different measurement paradigms and scoring methods, indicating the importance of considering these methodological differences when interpreting results.” 

Although this work is intriguing, it does not show that exercise significantly improves the symptoms of ADHD in children. This means that exercise, although beneficial for many reasons, should not be viewed as a replacement for evidence-based treatments for the disorder.

December 3, 2025

Here’s What the Wall Street Journal Got Wrong about the Medication Treatment of ADHD Patients: A Lesson in Science Media Literacy

A recent Wall Street Journal article raised alarms by concluding that many children who start medication for ADHD will later end up on several psychiatric drugs. It’s an emotional topic that will make many parents, teachers, and even doctors worry: “Are we putting kids on a conveyor belt of medications?”

The article seeks to shine a light on the use of more than one psychiatric medication for children with ADHD.   My biggest worry about the article is that it presents itself as a scientific study because they analyzed a database.  It is not a scientific study.  It is a journalistic investigation that does not meet the standards of a scientific report..

The WJS brings attention to several issues that parents and prescribers should think about. It documents that some kids with ADHD are on more than one psychiatric medication, and some are receiving drugs like antipsychotics, which have serious side effects.  Is that appropriate? Access to good therapy, careful evaluation, and follow-up care can be lacking, especially for low-income families.  Can that be improved?  On that level, the article is doing something valuable: it’s shining a spotlight on potential problems.

It is, of course, fine for a journalist to raise questions, but it is not OK for them to pretend that they’ve done a scientific investigation that proves anything. Journalism pretending to be science is both bad science and bad journalism.

Journalism vs. Science: Why Peer Review Matters

Journalists can get big datasets, hire data journalists, and present numbers that look scientific.  But consider the differences between Journalism and Science. These types of articles are usually checked by editors and fact-checkers. Their main goals are:

 Is this fact basically correct?

 Are we being fair?

 Are we avoiding legal problems?

But editors are not qualified to evaluate scientific data analysis methods.  Scientific reports are evaluated by experts who are not part of the project.  They ask tough questions like: 

Exactly how did you define ADHD? 

How did you handle missing data? 

Did you address confounding? 

Did you confuse correlation with causation?

If the authors of the study cannot address these and other technical issues, the paper is rejected.

The WSJ article has the veneer of science but lacks its methodology.  

Correlation vs. Causation: A Classic Trap

The article’s storyline goes something like this:  A kid starts ADHD medication.  She has additional problems or side effects caused by the ADHD medications.   Because of that, the prescriber adds more drugs.  That leads to the patient being put on several drugs.  Although it is true that some ADHD youth are on multiple drugs, the WSJ is wrong to conclude that the medications for ADHD cause this to occur.  That simply confuses correlation with causation, which only the most naïve scientist would do.

In science, this problem is called confounding. It means other factors (like how severe or complex a child’s condition is) explain the results, not just the thing we’re focused on (medication for ADHD). 

The WSJ analyzed a database of prescriptions.  They did not survey the prescribers who made the prescriptions of the patients who received them.  So they cannot conclude that ADHD medication caused the later prescriptions, or that the later medications were unnecessary or inappropriate. 

Other explanations are very likely.   It has been well documented that youth with ADHD are at high risk for developing other disorders such as anxiety, depression,  and substance use.  The kids in the WSJ database might have developed these disorders and needed several medications.  A peer-reviewed article in a scientific journal would be expected to adjust for other diagnoses. If that is not possible, as it is in the case of the WSJ’s database, a journal would not allow the author to make strong conclusions about cause-and-effect.

Powerful Stories Don’t Always Mean Typical Stories

The article includes emotional accounts of children who seemed harmed by being put on multiple psychiatric drugs.  Strong, emotional stories can make rare events feel common.  They also frighten parents and patients, which might lead some to decline appropriate care. 

These stories matter. They remind us that each data point is a real person.  But these stories are the weakest form of data.  They can raise important questions and lead scientists to design definitive studies, but we cannot use them to draw conclusions about the experiences of other patients.  These stories serve as a warning about the importance of finding a qualified provider,  not as against the use of multiple medications.  That decision should be made by the parent or adult patient based on an informed discussion with the prescriber.

Many children and adults with ADHD benefit from multiple medications. The WSJ does not tell those stories, which creates an unbalanced and misleading presentation.  

Newspapers frequently publish stories that send the message:  “Beware!  Doctors are practicing medicine in a way that will harm you and your family.”   They then use case studies to prove their point.  The title of the article is, itself, emotional clickbait designed to get more readers and advertising revenue.  Don’t be confused by such journalistic trickery.

What Should We Conclude?

Here’s a balanced way to read the article.  It is true that some patients are prescribed more than one medication for mental health problems.  But the article does not tell us whether this prescribing practice is or is not warranted for most patients.  I agree that the use of antipsychotic medications needs careful justification and close monitoring.  I also agree that patients on multiple medications should be monitored closely to see if some of the medications can be eliminated.  Many prescribers do exactly that, but the WSJ did not tell their stories.  

It is not appropriate to conclude that ADHD medications typically cause combined pharmacotherapy or to suggest that combined pharmacotherapy is usually bad. The data presented by the WSJ does not adequately address these concerns.  It does not prove that medications for ADHD cause dangerous medication cascades.

We have to remember that even when a journalist analyzes data, that is not the same as a peer-reviewed scientific study. Journalism pretending to be science is both bad science and bad journalism.