August 29, 2025

Population Study Finds Vastly Increased ADHD Medication Prescribing is Associated With Declining Overall Risk Reduction Benefits

The Background: 

Randomized clinical trials have shown ADHD medications are effective in reducing core ADHD symptoms. Moreover, large observational studies indicate that these medications are associated with lower risks of real-world outcomes, including injuries, crime, transport crashes, suicide attempts, and unnatural-cause mortality. 

Sweden’s ADHD medication use has soared. From 2006 to 2020, children’s use rose almost fivefold, and adults' use more than tenfold. This places Sweden among the highest globally in ADHD prescriptions. 

Research indicates that rising prescription rates are due to changes in diagnostic criteria and their interpretation, parental perception, and greater awareness of ADHD, rather than an actual increase in its prevalence. 

Sweden has a single-payer health insurance system that covers virtually its entire population, as well as a system of national registers that link health care records to other population databases.  

The Study:

A research team based in Sweden used that data to explore how the impact of ADHD medication on self-harm, injuries, traffic crashes, and crime has evolved with the dramatic increase in ADHD prescription rates. The team hypothesized that effects would decrease as medications were prescribed to a broader group of patients, including those with fewer impairments and risky behaviors who might not derive as much benefit from pharmacotherapy. 

The team identified all individuals aged 4 to 64 who were prescribed ADHD medication and living in Sweden in the fifteen years from 2006 through 2020. From this base cohort, they selected four specific cohorts for self-harm, unintentional injury, traffic crashes, and crime, consisting of individuals who experienced at least one relevant event during the study period. 

They used a self-controlled case series (SCCS) design to explore the link between ADHD medication use and outcomes. This approach allows individuals to serve as their own controls, accounting for confounders like genetics, socioeconomic status, or other constant characteristics during follow-up. 

A non-treatment period was defined as a gap of 30 days or more between two consecutive treatment periods. To examine the link between ADHD medication use and outcomes, the team divided follow-up time into consecutive periods for each individual. A new period began after a treatment switch. They estimated incidence rate ratios (IRRs) to compare the outcome event rates during medicated periods with non-medicated periods for the same individual. 

The team examined how ADHD medication outcomes varied with prescription prevalence across three periods: 2006-2010, 2011-2015, and 2016-2020, during which ADHD medication use continuously increased. 

The overall cohort encompassed almost a quarter million ADHD medication users: just over 57,000 for 2006-2010, just over 127,000 for 2011-2015, and slightly over 200,000 for 2016-2020. 

The Results:

ADHD medication use was linked to significantly lower rates of all studied outcomes during the study period. However, as prescription rates increased five to tenfold in the population, the strongest association for reduction in self-harm was observed between 2006 to 2010 (23% reduction in incidence rate) and was slightly reduced (below 20%) in the two more recent periods, though this change was not statistically significant.  

On the other hand, there was a significant decreasing trend in the reduction of incidence rate ratios for unintentional injury, with a 13% reduction in incidence rate in 2006-2010 decreasing over the two more recent periods to half that amount, 7%. For traffic crashes, a 29% reduction in incidence rate significantly diminished by more than half, to 13%. For crime, a 27% reduction in incidence rate from medication use significantly declined to 16%. 

When considering methylphenidate prescriptions only, these effects were partially attenuated for crime. A 28% reduction in the incidence rate for crime in 2006-2010 dropped to 19% in the two most recent periods, but the trend was not statistically significant. Nevertheless, there were no significant differences from the results in the larger cohort in any of the other categories.   

The Interpretation:

These outcomes were consistent with the team’s hypothesis. The researchers concluded, “While ADHD medications are consistently associated with reduced risk of serious real-world outcomes, the magnitude of these associations have decreased over time alongside rising prescription rates. This underscores the importance of continuously evaluating medication use in different patient populations.” 

Lin Li, David Coghill, Arvid Sjölander, Honghui Yao, Le Zhang, Ralf Kuja-Halkola, Isabell Brikell, Paul Lichtenstein, Brian M. D’Onofrio, Henrik Larsson, and Zheng Chang, “Increased Prescribing of Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder Medication and Real-World Outcomes Over Time,” JAMA Psychiatry (2025), https://doi.org/10.1001/jamapsychiatry.2025.1281.

Related posts

What is Evidenced-Based Medicine?

What is Evidenced-Based Medicine?

With the growth of the Internet, we are flooded with information about attention deficit hyperactivity disorder from many sources, most of which aim to provide useful and compelling "facts" about the disorder.  But, for the cautious reader, separating fact from opinion can be difficult when writers have not spelled out how they have come to decide that the information they present is factual. 

My blog has several guidelines to reassure readers that the information they read about ADHD is up-to-date and dependable. They are as follows:

Nearly all the information presented is based on peer-reviewed publications in the scientific literature about ADHD. "Peer-reviewed" means that other scientists read the article and made suggestions for changes and approved that it was of sufficient quality for publication. I say "nearly all" because in some cases I've used books or other information published by colleagues who have a reputation for high-quality science.

When expressing certainty about putative facts, I am guided by the principles of evidence-based medicine, which recognizes that the degree to which we can be certain about the truth of scientific statements depends on several features of the scientific papers used to justify the statements, such as the number of studies available and the quality of the individual studies. For example, compare these two types of studies.  One study gives drug X to 10 ADHD patients and reported that 7 improved.  Another gave drug Y to 100 patients and a placebo to 100 other patients and used statistics to show that the rate of improvement was significantly greater in the drug-treated group. The second study is much better and much larger, so we should be more confident in its conclusions. The rules of evidence are fairly complex and can be viewed at the Oxford Center for Evidenced Based Medicine (OCEBM;http://www.cebm.net/).


The evidenced-based approach incorporates two types of information: a) the quality of the evidence and b) the magnitude of the treatment effect. The OCEBM levels of evidence quality are defined as follows (higher numbers are better:

  1. Mechanism-based reasoning.  For example, some data suggest that oxidative stress leads to ADHD, and we know that omega-3 fatty acids reduce oxidative stress. So there is a reasonable mechanism whereby omega-3 therapy might help ADHD people.
  2. Studies of one or a few people without a control group, or studies that compare treated patients to those that were not treated in the past.

Non-randomized, controlled studies.    In these studies, the treatment group is compared to a group that receives a placebo treatment, which is a fake treatment not expected to work.  

  1. Non-randomized means that the comparison might be confounded by having placed different types of patients in the treatment and control groups.
  2. A single randomized trial.  This type of study is not confounded.
  3. Systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized trials. This means that many randomized trials have been completed and someone has combined them to reach a more accurate conclusion.

It is possible to have high-quality evidence proving that a treatment works but the treatment might not work very well. So it is important to consider the magnitude of the treatment effect, also called the "effect size" by statisticians. For ADHD, it is easiest to think about ranking treatments on a ten-point scale. The stimulant medications have a quality rating of 5 and also have the strongest magnitude of effect, about 9 or 10.Omega-3 fatty acid supplementation 'works' with a quality rating of 5, but the score for the magnitude of the effect is only 2, so it doesn't work very well. We have to take into account patient or parent preferences, comorbid conditions, prior response to treatment, and other issues when choosing a treatment for a specific patient, but we can only use an evidence-based approach when deciding which treatments are well-supported as helpful for a disorder.

April 23, 2021

ADHD medication and risk of suicide

ADHD Medication and Risk of Suicide

A Chinese research team performed two types of meta-analyses to compare the risk of suicide for ADHD patients taking ADHD medication as opposed to those not taking medication.

The first type of meta-analysis combined six large population studies with a total of over 4.7 million participants. These were located on three continents - Europe, Asia, and North America - and more specifically Sweden, England, Taiwan, and the United States.

The risk of suicide among those taking medication was found to be about a quarter less than for unmediated individuals, though the results were barely significant at the 95 percent confidence level (p = 0.49, just a sliver below the p = 0.5 cutoff point). There were no significant differences between males and females, except that looking only at males or females reduced sample size and made results non-significant.

Differentiating between patients receiving stimulant and non-stimulant medications produced divergent outcomes. A meta-analysis of four population studies covering almost 900,000 individuals found stimulant medications to be associated with a 28 percent reduced risk of suicide. On the other hand, a meta-analysis of three studies with over 62,000 individuals found no significant difference in suicide risk for non-stimulant medications. The benefit, therefore, seems limited to stimulant medication.

The second type of meta-analysis combined three within-individual studies with over 3.9 million persons in the United States, China, and Sweden. The risk of suicide among those taking medication was found to be almost a third less than for unmediated individuals, though the results were again barely significant at the 95 percent confidence level (p =0.49, just a sliver below the p = 0.5 cutoff point). Once again, there were no significant differences between males and females, except that looking only at males or females reduced the sample size and made results non-significant.

Differentiating between patients receiving stimulant and non-stimulant medications once again produced divergent outcomes. Meta-analysis of the same three studies found a 25 percent reduced risk of suicide among those taking stimulant medications. But as in the population studies, a meta-analysis of two studies with over 3.9 million persons found no reduction in risk among those taking non-stimulant medications.

A further meta-analysis of two studies with 3.9 million persons found no reduction in suicide risk among persons taking ADHD medications for 90 days or less, "revealing the importance of duration and adherence to medication in all individuals prescribed stimulants for ADHD."

The authors concluded, "exposure to non-stimulants is not associated with a higher risk of suicide attempts. However, a lower risk of suicide attempts was observed for stimulant drugs. However, the results must be interpreted with caution due to the evidence of heterogeneity ..."

December 13, 2021

Unmedicated Adult ADHD Linked to Dementia in Population Study

Background:

Noting that “the association between adult ADHD and dementia risk remains a topic of interest because of inconsistent results,” an Israeli study team tracked 109,218 members of a nonprofit Israeli health maintenance organization born between 1933 and 1952 who entered the cohort on January 1, 2003, without an ADHD or dementia diagnosis and were followed up to February 28, 2020. 

Israeli law forbids nonprofit HMOs from turning anyone away based on demographic factors,  health conditions, or medication needs, thereby limiting sample selection bias.  

The estimated prevalence of dementia in this HMO, as diagnosed by geriatricians, neurologists, or psychiatrists, is 6.6%. This closely matches estimates in Western Europe (6.9%) and the United States (6.5%). 

Method:

The team considered, and adjusted for, numerous covariates: age, sex, socioeconomic status, smoking, depression, obesity, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, hypertension, atrial fibrillation, heart failure, ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, diabetes, Parkinson’s disease, traumatic brain injury, migraine, mild cognitive impairment, psychostimulants. 

With these adjustments, individuals diagnosed with ADHD were almost three times as likely to be subsequently diagnosed with dementia as those without ADHD. Men with ADHD were two and a half times more likely to be diagnosed with dementia, whereas women with ADHD were over three times more likely, than non-ADHD peers. 

More concerning still, persons with ADHD were 5.5 times more likely to be subsequently diagnosed with early onset dementia, as opposed to 2.4 times more likely to be diagnosed with late onset dementia. 

On the other hand, the team found no significant difference in rates of dementia between individuals with ADHD who were being treated with stimulant medications and individuals without ADHD. Those with untreated ADHD had three times the rate of dementia. The team nevertheless cautioned, “Due to the underdiagnosis of dementia as well as bidirectional misdiagnosis, this association requires further study before causal inference is plausible.” 

Conclusions and Relevance:

This study reinforces existing evidence that adult ADHD is associated with an increased risk of dementia. Notably, the increased risk was not observed in individuals receiving psychostimulant medication, however the mechanism behind this association is not clear.

These findings underscore the importance of reliable ADHD assessment and management in adulthood. They also highlight the need for further study into the link between stimulant medications and the decreased risk of dementia.

 

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February 25, 2025

The Neurocognitive Roots of Boredom in ADHD: a Meta-Analysis

Boredom is more than just feeling restless or under-stimulated. It’s a negative emotional state that arises when activities feel meaningless or dull and, for those with ADHD, this negative emotional state might be markedly more intense. Researchers increasingly view boredom as functional: an internal signal pushing people to seek more rewarding and meaningful experiences. But for some, that signal becomes chronic and overwhelming.

People who are highly prone to boredom face a range of psychological and behavioral consequences, including anxiety, depression, difficulty identifying their own emotions (alexithymia), impulsivity, and physical complaints. These struggles often surface in harmful behaviors: overeating, substance use, compulsive internet use, and gambling.

For people with ADHD, boredom can cross into genuine distress. Many describe it as “torture” or “an itchy coat you can’t scratch”,  language that conveys not mild discomfort but an urgent, almost unbearable need to escape. This makes sense given that ADHD involves core difficulties with attention, arousal regulation, and motivation, all of which make sustained engagement harder and boredom far more likely.

The Study:

A recent meta-analysis of 18 studies involving more than 22,000 participants confirmed a moderately strong and consistent positive association (an overall effect size of r = 0.40) between ADHD and self-reported boredom. All but one study found significant results, and there was no evidence of publication bias.

“While the relationship between ADHD and boredom may seem obvious,” the authors state, “this has paradoxically led to the phenomenon being understudied.”

Despite how significant this connection appears to be, the researchers noted it has attracted surprisingly little scientific attention; a gap they attribute to a widespread assumption that boredom in ADHD is simply a byproduct of inattention or impulsivity, and therefore not worth studying on its own terms. They push back on that view, arguing that boredom may be a more fundamental part of the ADHD experience: a bridge between atypical brain function and the behavioral, emotional, and cognitive difficulties that shape long-term outcomes.

The Take-Away: 

Ultimately, addressing the profound boredom experienced by individuals with ADHD requires a multifaceted approach that goes beyond simply treating inattention. Researchers emphasize the need for rigorous studies to determine if stimulant medications actively reduce this intense boredom by repairing underlying brain mechanisms, rather than just as a side effect of improved focus. Beyond medication, tailored psychological therapies may offer promise; psychoeducation can help individuals reframe boredom as a biological signal rather than a personal failure or character flaw. 

Additionally, another approach suggests that rather than solely focusing on treating the individual, systemic issues must be addressed, such as the effects of low-stimulation environments. For example, prioritizing a better "person-environment fit" through smaller class sizes, flexible academic pacing, and/or offering highly stimulating, novel tasks, schools and workplaces can offer meaningful relief from the chronic distress of ADHD-related boredom. 

May 11, 2026

Early Skull Fusion in Infants Linked to Higher ADHD Risk

A new study from Japan suggests that infants born with craniosynostosis are significantly more likely to be diagnosed with ADHD later in childhood. Craniosynostosis is a condition in which the bony plates of the skull fuse prematurely, leading to increased intracranial pressure. 

The Background:

Craniosynostosis affects roughly one in every 2,000 births. When the skull’s natural seams close prematurely, it can restrict brain growth and increase intracranial pressure, potentially reducing blood flow to the brain. Because the condition is relatively rare, it has been difficult to study at scale until now. 

The Study:

To overcome this, researchers tapped into a large Japanese insurance database compiled by JMDC, Inc., which holds records on around 20 million people, or about 15% of Japan’s population. Drawing on two decades of data, the team tracked over 338,000 mother-child pairs. Children with related genetic syndromes or chromosomal conditions such as Down syndrome were excluded to keep the focus on craniosynostosis itself. 

Of the children studied, around 1,145 had craniosynostosis, and 7,325 were diagnosed with ADHD. After accounting for factors like sex, birth year, maternal age, mental health history, pregnancy infections, and birth complications, children with craniosynostosis were found to have roughly 2.4 times the risk of a subsequent ADHD diagnosis compared to those without it. 

To test whether shared family genetics or home environment might be driving the association rather than the skull condition itself, the researchers conducted a separate analysis among siblings. The elevated risk remained at 2.2 times. The consistency of the finding across both analyses strengthens the case for a genuine biological link. 

The Results:

The results point to raised intracranial pressure and restricted cerebral blood flow as plausible mechanisms, though the study’s observational design means causation cannot be confirmed. Ultimately, these findings highlight the need for proactive, long-term care strategies for those born with craniosynostosis. By establishing a solid link between premature skull fusion and a significantly higher risk of ADHD, the research demonstrates that medical care for this condition should not end once the skull's physical structure is addressed.

The Takeaway:

Pediatricians, neurologists, and parents can use this data to implement early, routine behavioral and developmental screening for these children as they grow. This additional support would ensure that those who do develop ADHD can receive timely interventions, educational aids, and therapies, ultimately improving their long-term developmental outcomes.

Population Study Indicates ADHD Drug Treatment May Reduce Contact with Child Welfare Services

Children and adolescents with ADHD come into contact with child welfare services (CWS) far more often than their peers. There are many contributing factors to consider, including the fact that hyperactivity and impulsivity frequently lead to behaviors that are considered disruptive and cause academic and social difficulties. Many of these children are also growing up in households marked by parental conflict and/or single-parent arrangements.  All of these circumstances can compound vulnerability and, historically, increase the likelihood of CWS involvement.

Background: 

In Norway, Child Welfare Services operate at the municipal level and are legally required in every local authority. Their scope spans investigation, family support, and, where necessary, out-of-home placement and ongoing monitoring. Grounds for intervention include abuse, neglect, behavioral or psychosocial difficulties, and inadequate care-giving. Norwegian CWS works closely with health, education, and social services and places a strong emphasis on keeping families together. Compared with systems in countries such as the United States, Poland, Romania, and the Czech Republic, the Norwegian approach sets a lower bar for intervention and leans toward home-based support, while setting a higher bar for out-of-home placements. This model is shared by other Nordic countries, as well as Germany and the United Kingdom. 

Research into whether ADHD medication affects child welfare caseloads is remarkably sparse. A single Danish study previously found that medication treatment accounted for much of an observed decline in foster care cases, but no study had examined medication’s broader impact on CWS involvement, covering both supportive interventions and out-of-home placements. 

Norway’s universal single-payer health system and comprehensive national registers make population-wide research of this kind feasible. Drawing on these resources, a Norwegian research team set out to test whether ADHD medication reduces children’s contact with CWS and their need for out-of-home placement. 

The Study:

This study included all 5,930 children and adolescents aged 5 to 14 who received a clinical ADHD diagnosis from Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services between 2009 and 2011. Each was followed for up to 4 years post-diagnosis, the upper age limit being 18, at which point CWS jurisdiction ends. This group was compared with more than 53,000 peers who had no CWS contact during the same period. 

The results showed a meaningful, though not dramatic, association between medication and reduced CWS contact. At one year, treated children had approximately 7% fewer contacts with CWS; by two years, that figure had risen to around 12%. The effect then narrowed, settling at roughly 7–8% reductions at the three- and four-year marks. 

The picture for out-of-home placements is considerably less convincing. The research team highlighted a 3% reduction at two-year follow-up, but this finding barely crossed the threshold of statistical significance, and no effect was observed at the one-, three-, or four-year follow-up points. 

The Take-Away:

The authors concluded that pharmacological treatment for ADHD is associated with reductions in both supportive CWS services and out-of-home placements among children affected by clinicians’ prescribing decisions in Norway. A more cautious reading of the same data, however, would emphasize an overall reduction in CWS contact of roughly 8%, while treating the out-of-home placement finding as, at best, inconclusive. 

May 4, 2026