September 26, 2023

Nationwide population study finds high relative risk of traffic crashes among the elderly with ADHD, but with very low frequency, muddling interpretation of the results

Researchers from the Swedish Department of Global Public Health, the Swedish Transport Agency, and the Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute collaborated in a nationwide population study of motor vehicle crashes among the elderly, defined as 65 and older.

They availed themselves of the country's all-encompassing national registers to identify the anonymized records of all such drivers from 2011 through 2016. That enabled them to compare crash records of those with known driving-impairing conditions with matched drivers who had no record of such conditions.

They looked only at road traffic crashes that resulted in injury to the driver or a passenger. For anyone with multiple crash records, they only looked at the first.

This was a case-control study, with two controls matched to each case wherever possible. For every case of a 65 or older driver involved in an injurious crash, the team randomly matched two individual controls by sex, birth year, municipality of residence, and other medical conditions. Place of residence was used to distinguish residents of large cities, who would tend to drive less frequently and in denser traffic, from those in small towns and rural areas. To minimize controls that never drive, only those with a driver's license and car were considered.

Of the thirteen medical conditions examined, elderly drivers with "ADHD, autism spectrum disorder, and similar conditions" had by far the highest odds of being in crashes that resulted in injury "at almost three times the rate of those without those conditions."

But note carefully the serious limitations in the data:

  • ADHD was bundled in with autism spectrum disorder and "similar conditions", making an unalloyed evaluation impossible.
  • Out of a total of 13,701 crashes, only 26 involved any of these conditions.
  • Because of the small number, the two-for-one matching broke down completely. Only 17 matched controls could be found, less than a third of the target of 52.
  • That means that despite a nationwide sample involving over 40,000 cases and controls, the sample size for "ADHD, autism spectrum disorder and similar conditions" was only 43.
The authors noted that while the high odds ratio "for ADHD, autism spectrum disorder, and similar conditions, are in line with previous studies on young adult drivers and adult drivers in this recent cohort of older, Swedish adults, such conditions are very uncommon compared to younger adults, suggesting likely under-diagnosis. Hence, the results should be interpreted with caution."

Marie Skydiving, Åsa Forsman, Tania DukicWillstrand, LucieLaflamme, JetteMöller, “Medical impairment and road traffic crashes among older drivers in Sweden – A national, population-based, case-control study,” AccidentAnalysis and Prevention 163 (2021) 106434, published online,https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2021.106434.

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French Cohort Study: Does Methylphenidate Increase Risk of Mania in Patients with Comorbid BP and ADHD?

The Background:

Methylphenidate is an effective treatment for ADHD in adults who also have bipolar disorder (BD), but it carries a potential risk of triggering manic episodes. Current guidelines therefore recommend using it only alongside mood-stabilizing medication. A new study using French nationwide claims data sought to test and extend those recommendations with greater statistical power than previous research. 

The Study:

The study built on findings by Viktorin et al. (2017), who observed that adults with BD not taking mood stabilizers had more than a sixfold higher risk of manic events (defined as hospitalization for mania or a new antimanic prescription) within six months of starting methylphenidate. Patients on mood-stabilizing treatment, by contrast, showed nearly half the baseline risk in the first three months. Those findings were limited, however, by small event counts (fewer than 61 manic episodes) and an effect that did not persist beyond the initial three-month window. 

To build on this, researchers drew on the French National Health Data System (which is a claims database covering more than 60 million people) spanning 2008 to 2024. The final sample included 6,022 adults with BD (56% women) who had started methylphenidate. Using a self-controlled design, the study compared each patient's rate of manic events in the six months before their first methylphenidate prescription with the rate in the six months after, effectively eliminating stable individual differences as a confound. 

Patients were classified as receiving continuous mood-stabilizing treatment if they had been dispensed at least two courses of specific antipsychotics (aripiprazole, olanzapine, or quetiapine) or mood stabilizers (lithium or valproate) in the nine months before starting methylphenidate, including at least one dispensation in the final six months of that window. 

The Results:

The results largely confirmed the earlier findings. Among the 2,745 patients not on mood stabilizers, the rate of inpatient mania diagnosis was 5.1 times higher in the first three months after starting methylphenidate, though this elevation fell to a non-significant level over the subsequent three months. Patients receiving continuous mood-stabilizing treatment showed no statistically significant change in mania risk across the full six-month post-initiation period. A formulation-specific pattern also emerged: patients without mood-stabilizing treatment had a 2.5-fold higher risk associated with extended-release methylphenidate, while no significant risk increase was seen with the immediate-release formulation or in treated patients regardless of formulation. 

The Conclusion:

The authors conclude that methylphenidate at doses below 30 mg does not appear to elevate manic relapse risk when prescribed alongside mood stabilizers. The elevated risk seen in untreated patients, particularly with extended-release formulations, must be interpreted cautiously, given limited statistical power and the likelihood that it partly reflects the natural fluctuation of manic relapse over time. The authors flag this as an inherent limitation of self-controlled survival analyses when studying drug-induced mania, where temporal trends in the underlying condition can be difficult to disentangle from treatment effects. 

A New ADHD Medication That Works Differently in the Brain

The FDA has approved a new once-daily pill called centanafadine (trade name SIMTRIYO®). Approved for adults and kids aged 6 and older (weighing at least 44 lbs / 20 kg), centanafadine is a new category of ADHD treatment that aims to give fast results with fewer of the downsides of traditional stimulants.

What Makes This Drug Different?

To understand why centanafadine is unique among medications for ADHD, it helps to look at how ADHD brain chemistry works:

  1. Norepinephrine: Powers focus, alertness, and attention span.
  1. Dopamine: Drives motivation, reward system, and decision-making.
  1. Serotonin: Regulates mood, anxiety levels, and emotional stability.

Stimulants like Ritalin and Adderall work mainly in the dopamine system.  Nonstimulants like atomoxetine, viloxazine, clonidine and guanfacine work mainly on the norepinephrine system.  Centanafadine is the first drug in a new class called NDSRIs (Norepinephrine, Dopamine, and Serotonin Reuptake Inhibitors). We can describe its effects as follows:

  • Heavy boost to Norepinephrine: Delivers the strong focus and attention boost you need.
  • Moderate, smooth increase to Dopamine: Helps with motivation and brain executive function without triggering massive dopamine spikes that lead to addiction or heavy crashes.
  • Moderate boost to Serotonin: Helps smooth out mood swings and keeps anxiety under control.

What Did Clinical Trials Show?

The FDA approved centanafadine based on studies involving thousands of adults, teens, and children. Here are the key findings:

Centanafadine showed some improvement in ADHD symptoms within the very first week of taking it although a full effect takes about six weeks.

In adult trials, taking 200 mg or 400 mg daily led to significant improvements in real-world skills:

  • Time management and prioritizing tasks
  • Starting projects without procrastinating
  • Planning complex tasks and staying organized
  • Short-term working memory

In trials with children (ages 6–12) and teens (ages 13–17), centanafadine significantly reduced core ADHD symptoms like hyperactivity, impulsivity, and lack of focus compared to a placebo.

About 30% to 40% of adults with ADHD also suffer from anxiety. Traditional stimulants can make anxiety worse. In a trial specifically designed for adults dealing with both ADHD and anxiety, centanafadine effectively treated ADHD symptoms without firing up their anxiety, which might be due to its serotonin boost.

Does Centanafadine have Side Effects?

While Centanafadine was well-tolerated by most people in studies, like any prescription medication, it comes with important safety guidelines.

Prescribing Warnings:

  • Suicidal Thoughts in Children: In trials for kids aged 6 to 12, centanafadine was linked to a higher risk of suicidal thoughts and behaviors compared to a sugar pill.  Although rare, parents and doctors should look for changes in mood or behavior, especially when starting or changing doses.
  • Stimulant Classification: Because it acts on central nervous system pathways, especially dopamine, centanafadine is classified as a CNS stimulant so might lead to addiction. While it has a much lower abuse risk than stimulants like Ritalin or Adderall, doctors should still evaluate patients for any history of substance abuse before prescribing.

Common Side Effects:

  • Kids & Teens: Decreased appetite, stomach ache, nausea, rash, and headache.
  • Adults: Dry mouth, difficulty sleeping (insomnia), decreased appetite, nausea, and headaches.

Other Warnings:

  • Heart & Blood Pressure: It can cause small increases in heart rate and blood pressure, so doctors will check these regularly.
  • Drug Interactions: It cannot be taken with certain antidepressants (MAOIs) due to dangerous blood pressure risks.

The Bottom Line

Overall, centanafadine is a new step forward in how we treat ADHD. Because it acts differently in the brain than traditional treatments, patients who struggle with stimulant-related anxiety or side effects may find it useful to explore with their doctor.

Nitrogen Dioxide Linked to Higher ADHD Risk: Insights from a Massive South Korean Study

A landmark nationwide study from South Korea has uncovered a significant link between prenatal exposure to air pollution — specifically nitrogen dioxide (NO2) — and an increased risk of ADHD in children. 

While researchers have long suspected that air pollutants interfere with fetal brain development through inflammation and oxidative stress, this study is one of the largest and most comprehensive of its kind, following nearly 1.5 million births for up to 13 years. 

Why South Korea? 

South Korea provided a unique countrywide “laboratory” for this research due to two key infrastructure strengths: 

  • Universal Health Data: A national insurance database that tracks the health outcomes of the entire population. 
  • Granular Air Monitoring: A network of 642 monitoring stations that allowed researchers to precisely estimate what pollutants mothers were breathing based on their postal codes. 

Key Findings: The “Smoking Gun” of NO2 

While the study looked at several pollutants, nitrogen dioxide — a byproduct of fossil fuel combustion in cars and power plants — emerged as the primary concern. 

Pollutant 

Association with ADHD Risk 

Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) 

Strongest Link: Every 1-ppb (part-per-billion) increase in exposure linked to a 22% rise in risk. 

Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) 

Minimal Link: Only a slight 4% increase per ppb. 

Ozone (O3) carbon monoxide (CO), & particulates 

No significant association was found. 

The scale of the NO2 risk is particularly striking. Over the typical range of exposure levels found in the study (an interquartile range of 13 ppb), the data suggest a threefold increase in ADHD risk for children in the highest-exposure groups compared to the lowest. 

Accounting for Other Factors 

To ensure the results weren’t skewed by other variables, the researchers controlled for a wide range of confounders including: 

  • Socioeconomic and employment status. 
  • Maternal age and baseline health. 
  • The child’s sex. 
  • The presence of 14 different medical conditions around childbirth. 

The authors emphasized the strong association between maternal nitrogen dioxide exposure and ADHD, while also noting the small but significant association with sulfur dioxide.  

The Take-Away: A New Frontier for Public Health 

Historically, air quality laws have been designed to protect our lungs and hearts. However, this study adds to a growing body of evidence suggesting that the brain is likewise vulnerable. 

In a commentary on the findings, expert George Ayoub argued that “neurodevelopment should be explicitly considered” when governments perform cost-benefit analyses on air quality regulation.  My view is a bit different.  The association is intriguing but the study does not establish cause and effect.  Many statistically significant environmental risk associations for neurodevelopmental disorders have disappeared after controlling for maternal risk for ADHD.  I hope this research team will do those analyses if feasible.